Global electricity system on track for net-zero pathway, studies find

Surging renewable energy deployment has put the world’s electricity system on track to achieve the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) net-zero pathway by 2030, new research suggests.

The analysis by non-profit RMI, in partnership with the Bezos Earth Fund, forecasts solar and wind supplying over a third of all power by the end of the decade, up from around 12% currently.

Major cost declines over the past 10 years are also expected to continue, with solar and wind roughly halving in price again by 2030, while fossil fuel demand for electricity could fall by as much as 30% from last year's peak.

Complementary research from Systems Change shows that Uruguay, Denmark, Lithuania, Namibia, Netherlands, Palestine, Jordan, and Chile have already grown solar and wind generation faster than what’s needed to limit global warming to 1.5°C.

“Exponential growth of clean energy is an unstoppable force that will put more spending power in the pockets of consumers,” said Kingsmill Bond, senior principal at RMI.

“The benefit of rapid renewable deployment is greater energy security and independence, plus long-term energy price deflation because this is a manufactured technology – the more you install the cheaper it gets.”

Should the RMI forecasts prove accurate, solar and wind would generate 12,000-14,000TWh by 2030, and surpass recent calls running up to COP28 for a tripling of total renewable energy capacity by the end of the decade.

This comes as the Global Stocktake, which delivers the results of a two-year assessment of global efforts to meet the Paris Agreement, is expected to highlight a major shortfall in necessary progress to stem the accelerating climate crisis.

However, RMI said that this “backward-looking assessment” misses the exponential growth of new energy technologies in the largest industries of the fossil fuel system.

Electricity and road transport account for more than half of fossil fuel demand and have reached “tipping points” in renewable energy deployment to pave the way for widespread adoption.

Solar and battery costs have declined 80% between 2012 and 2022, while offshore wind costs are down 73%, and onshore wind costs are 57% down, BNEF data shows.

“The exponential growth trend in renewable electricity can be harnessed to help developing countries get ahead of the curve and transition faster to a cleaner and more affordable electricity system,” said Andrew Steer, president and CEO of the Bezos Earth Fund.