Global temperatures to exceed Paris Agreement limit by 2˚C

Climate change will see global temperatures rise by 4˚C above pre-industrial levels under a business-as-usual scenario – double the upper limit set out in the Paris Agreement.

That is according to Schroders’ Climate Progress Dashboard, which forecasts temperature increases based on 12 indicators spanning politics, business, technology and energy.

The investment management firm said it had found no progress in slowing oil and gas investment, while fossil fuel reserves also continue to rise unabated.

However, there were positive results recorded for renewable energy capacity, carbon prices, and electric vehicle usage, with the company’s head of sustainable research, Andrew Howard, saying there were “reasons for optimism”.

“We believe the outlook is a little more positive than the headline temperature rise suggests,” he continued. “But it is clear that far faster action is needed, and far more disruption lies ahead.”

The dashboard is designed to give investors an insight into how successfully governments and industries are delivering the Paris Agreement and is updated on a quarterly basis.

It previously predicted a temperature rise of 4.1˚C when launched 12 months ago, but adjusted this down after reforms to the EU’s Emissions Trading Scheme were announced last year.

Schroders also said China’s plan for a nationwide carbon-trading scheme was another source of optimism, establishing a price for close to one-quarter of the world’s emissions.

This comes after it was found that investments in renewable energy and green technologies reached $333.5bn (£240bn) last year, up 3% on 2016 and just 7% short of the record set in 2015.

“Indicators are moving in the right direction,” Howard said.

“The growing use of electric vehicles and clean energy technologies underline the falling reliance on politicians to drive climate action, which should ultimately be a major positive.”

Image credit: iStock