Mission impossible? The challenges for local authorities to build 1.5 million homes

Canniford, who is North Somerset Council’s executive member for spatial planning, placemaking and economy, is in a tight corner. His authority has a significantly higher target of 23,805 homes over 15 years. That means finding space for an extra 8,530.

“This is an enormous challenge and will result in new development being required in many new locations,” he says. “Around 85% of land in North Somerset is at risk from flooding, part of the Mendip Hills landscape, high-quality green belt or protected in other ways for environmental or heritage reasons.

“With this in mind, we will try to maximise development in our urban areas as much as we can. However, the government has been clear that we need to deliver their housing target, even if that means development in the green belt. 

“This will be a last resort but because we have to find space for so many extra houses, this may be our only option in some cases.”

Grey areas

The government thinks part of the answer lies in building on the ‘grey belt’ or previously developed sites in the green belt (see overleaf). But North Somerset is not alone. In neighbouring Bath and North East Somerset, the council’s target has risen by 717 homes a year to 1,466 and this must be delivered in a city constrained by World Heritage Site status. “Proposals with crude targets that potentially facilitate unplanned development would be unforgivable,” says council leader Kevin Guy.

Government proposals to reform the National Planning Policy Framework to boost housing development could create a “developer free-for-all” with mandatory targets piling more pressure on overstretched infrastructure and services, according to county councils. The move could leave communities “at the mercy of speculative housing development”, the County Councils Network (CCN) says.

Its survey reveals that 94% of authorities believe the targets are “excessive”, leading to a 56% rise in new homes required each year. On average, county and rural areas will have to deliver an extra 1,245 homes per week, or 64,769 a year, the CCN says.

“Councils in rural and county areas are not anti-housing, and the vast majority support the principle of nationally set targets,” says housing and planning spokesperson Richard Clewer. “But these targets are excessive and we are looking at having to build an extra 65,000 homes a year, without any commitment to the essential road networks, school places and GP surgeries that will be required.

“We don’t have enough infrastructure to cope now, let alone after building a quarter of a million extra homes over the course of this parliament. And much of this development in county areas will be in the places with limited or no public transport, compared with the benefits of building in or around cities where there is already good infrastructure.

“Worse still, the government’s proposal to introduce a five-year land supply drives a bulldozer through locally agreed housing decisions in our local plans, and empowers developers. If implemented alongside these dramatic new housing targets, we will see a developer free-for-all in many county and rural areas, weakening democracy and leading to development in unsuitable locations, regardless of local views.”

Planning battles aside, the government faces a monumental challenge on several fronts. The number of homes to be built in England must surge to 450,000 by 2028-29 to meet its housing target, according to the Housing Forum, a network of around 120 public and private sector organisations. Only 234,400 homes were completed in 2022-23, with projections for 2023-24 revealing a sharp decline to around 150,000. Housing development will have to increase to “an unprecedented level”.

Then there is the thorny issue of whether there are enough construction workers. In May, the Construction Industry Training Board highlighted the persistent gap between demand and the workforce available to meet it.

The UK’s construction output will grow by an average of 2.4% a year between now and 2028, propelled by housing and infrastructure development alongside repair and maintenance. To meet this growth, more than 251,500 extra construction workers are needed in the next five years, with employment in the industry rising to 2.75 million by 2028.

Can’t get the staff

The industry recruits around 200,000 people every year. In 2023, an average of 38,000 vacancies were advertised each month. Yet 31% of construction firms say finding suitably skilled staff remains their biggest complaint, particularly with more older workers retiring and not being replaced. The industry lost 210,000 workers last year.

Housing development and associated infrastructure is not the only challenge facing construction. Unsafe cladding on high-risk buildings in the aftermath of the Grenfell Tower disaster is another.

According to government data published in August, remediation work has begun or been completed on only 50% of the 4,630 housing blocks that are 11 metres or taller and have unsafe cladding. A further 7,000 residential blocks that need remediation have yet to apply for the cladding safety scheme announced in 2022 to provide funding to tackle “life safety fire risks” in buildings above 11 metres and between 11 metres and 18 metres in London. As one observer points out, there may not be enough workers, materials or scaffolding to build homes and make high-risk buildings safe. Nevertheless, the government is sticking to its 1.5 million home target.

“It’s a big plan, which could help improve the quality of life of millions of people,” says Open University professor of economics Paul Anand. “But is such an ambitious target plausible? Or has the government created a rod for its own back and embarked on an economic mission that is doomed to failure?”

Green Belt, grey belt and new towns

Under the Town and Country Planning Act 1947, local authorities could include green belt proposals in their development plans. England has 14 green belt areas, comprising around 12% of the country’s land.

Within this, there are 11,205 previously developed or grey belt sites that comprise less than 1% of the green belt, according to retail estate consultancy Knight Frank. Around 40% of available sites (4,612) are in London’s green belt. Merseyside and Greater Manchester’s green belt is next with 1,068 available sites, followed by 1,315 in Birmingham, 1,129 in South and West Yorkshire, and 606 in Bristol and Bath.

These sites combined could produce only 100,000 to 200,000 homes, depending on development density, Knight Frank estimates.

Ahead of the general election, Labour’s definition of grey belt was wider than merely previously developed or brownfield land within the green belt, it notes. “So the potential for housing is much greater, depending on how they define it. At present, no such detailed definition exists.

“So far, Labour has described the grey belt as ‘poor-quality scrub land, mothballed on the outskirts of towns’ and ‘poor-quality and ugly areas’. This could cover a wide range of land sites.”

Definitions aside, there are major questions over whether the value generated by developing these sites is more than the cost of building on them. Add in the required infrastructure and doubts remain over how many could be developed in the first place.

The government has pledged to build a “generation of new towns” of 10,000 homes or more. “They’re not a bad idea,” says the Open University’s Paul Anand. “But building them takes a very long time, so any contribution they make to the housing crisis will take years, decades even, to be seen.”

Research by University of Warwick economists points to Ebbsfleet Valley, a newly planned town near London, where only 4,000 of 43,000 homes have been built since planning began in 1996. The relevant local authorities resolved to grant outline planning permission in 1998, two years after the application was submitted. 

But outline planning permission was not granted until November 2002 and residential development did not start until 2006.

Huw Morris is a freelance journalist