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Despite being dubbed a ‘finance COP’, the New Collective Quantified Goal agreed for £300bn in climate finance from developed countries for developing ones by 2035 falls far short of the $1.3trn that economists say is needed.
“An initial $250bn offer was raised to $300bn, but was insufficient to prevent the least developed countries and small island developing states from walking out of the talks,” explains IEMA deputy CEO Martin Baxter.
The summit was shrouded in controversy from the very beginning after footage emerged showing the COP29 chief executive and host nation’s deputy energy minister, Elnur Soltanov, using his role to broker fossil fuel deals.
Azerbaijan president Ilham Aliyev went on to describe oil and gas as a ‘gift from God’, prompting a French minister to boycott the conference, while Argentina also withdrew from negotiations in what was seen as a nod to the US president-elect and climate denier Donald Trump.
The controversy led leading figures such as Mary Robinson and Ban Ki-moon to question whether the COP process is fit for purpose. They also called for future conferences to only be held in countries with clear support for climate action, and stricter rules on fossil fuel lobbying.
Reasons for hope
There were, however, a few rays of light that shone through during the two-week summit, including the approval of carbon credit quality standards for a UN-endorsed global carbon market, which Baxter says is “urgently needed, particularly given the slow progress of developed countries providing significant financial support”.
UK PM Sir Keir Starmer announced that the country will now aim for an 81% cut in its emissions by 2035 – compared with 1990 levels – updating the previous 78% pledge. Brazil also unveiled an improved emission reduction target of 67% compared with 2005 levels, up from 59%.
Another key outcome was the removal of text referencing the “durability of storage over climate-relevant time frames”, meaning that nature-based solutions will have equal standing with negative emissions technologies.
The road ahead
Despite COP29 falling to agree a satisfactory climate finance goal for developing countries, the final cover text calls on all actors to work toward scaling up financing to at least $1.3trn from all public and private sources, and a ‘Baku to Belém Roadmap to $1.3T’ will be reported on at the next COP in Brazil.
Saudi Arabia attempted to block progress, and there were divisions among countries on the extent to which private investment could be counted toward the finance target, and the portion that could be given as loans, as opposed to grants.
Questions were also asked around whether China and India should even be regarded as developing countries – classifications that date back to 1992 – and whether they should take on extra responsibility for providing support to the poorest and most vulnerable nations.
“Each country must lodge their new nationally determined contributions (NDCs) by the end of February and this will be the acid test for the level of ambition on climate change over the next 10 years,” Baxter says. “Crucially, we need to see NDCs focus on implementation.”
Ultimately, the $1.3trn needed for developing countries in climate finance annually by 2035 is less than 1% of global economic output – a relatively small price to pay to save the planet, and many will be left feeling that this COP was another missed opportunity.
Chris Seekings is the Deputy Editor of IEMA’s Transform magazine, which is published biomonthly for IEMA members. Chris’s role involves writing sustainability-related news, features and interviews, as well as helping to plan and manage the magazine’s other day-to-day activities.
