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Once a delicacy used mainly in religious rituals, coffee has rocketed in popularity around the world, notably in traditionally tea-loving China, where consumption is growing at 20% a year.
But coffee is heading for a supply–demand imbalance. A 2023 report by non-profit agricultural research organisation World Coffee Research (WCR) warns of an unsustainable future caused by a combination of consumer demand growth of 2.5% a year, a fall in yield of 0.25% a year, and losses of 0.46% a year of the land used to grow coffee as a result of climate change.
To avoid such a future, WCR has calculated that the sector needs $452m a year over the next decade. “If current trends continue, we will be unable to meet the world’s growing demand for coffee, let alone to ensure that coffee production is economically and environmentally sustainable,” the organisation states.
Longer dry spells, water scarcity, increased risk of pests and diseases, and extreme temperature fluctuations are already making life difficult for coffee growers globally, especially smallholder farmers. These growers are often working on land of just one hectare and operate on tiny margins, but are responsible for 80% of the world’s harvest.
On the flip side, cultivation of coffee beans contributes to climate change. Emissions are caused by forest being cleared to make way for coffee plantations, use of fertiliser to grow the crops, the energy used in processing and distribution, and methane emissions from waste pulp.
There are various regulatory drivers behind the commodity push to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Along with cattle, soya, palm oil, rubber, cocoa and timber, coffee is covered by the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), which means it will not be allowed into the EU market unless it can be proved that production has not been linked to deforestation since 2020, and that all deforestation risks have been assessed and mitigated.
Ingredients supplier Olam Food Ingredients (ofi) has set a target to halve its emissions under scope 1 and 2 from its processing plants, compared with 2020. The company also plans to reduce the carbon emissions of its coffee supply chain by 30% by 2030, using the same baseline year. On-farm emissions are the biggest component of its carbon footprint.
To monitor exactly how much carbon is being produced by coffee farms in its supply chain, ofi is using a carbon sequestration monitoring tool developed specially for the task in collaboration with Google geospatial partner NGIS. This measures and accounts for gains and losses in carbon stocks on farms.
But with growers spanning 18 countries, and different coffee growing and processing techniques, there is no one-size-fits-all method of reducing the carbon footprint of its coffee, says Piet van Asten, head of sustainable production systems at ofi.
The company has developed a carbon scenario planner to model the outcome of different decarbonisation interventions, tailored to local contexts. The planner is based on nine different ‘archetypes’ of the coffee it buys, which differentiate between the type of beans grown (arabica or robusta); high-, mid- or low-yielding farms; and the processing technique used (natural or washed).
In natural processing, the coffee cherry is dried in the sun, and then hulled to remove the dry exterior. Therefore, decarbonisation is best targeted at growing techniques, such as reducing the use of fertilisers. With washed processing, the organic matter is stripped from the coffee bean within days of harvesting, then washed with water before being dried. Washed coffee results in high greenhouse gas emissions from wet pulp heaps and wastewater, so decarbonisation efforts should be focused on managing the waste better.
Yields can vary significantly between regions. In Brazil, where farmers tend to have more resources and less hilly terrain to navigate, mechanisation and use of fertilisers is high. At the other end of the scale in Indonesia, farmers have less money to buy fertilisers and a higher number of trees on farms, resulting in yields that are three to four times lower than in Brazil, he explains.
Once all these variables have been taken into account, the team can identify which interventions are the most appropriate for farmers. Opportunities tend to fall into four categories – more efficient use of fertiliser and organic inputs; treatment of pulp and wastewater; reducing deforestation and increasing agroforestry; and boosting productivity.
For example, in Indonesia, ofi is training farmers to increase yields by pruning and using compost made from locally available waste products, such as banana skins, goat manure and biochar. It is also supporting farmers to use regenerative practices, such as cover crops and sustainable management of pests, to improve soil health, water resources, biodiversity and carbon stocks.
Van Asten says: “When you look at coffee and carbon footprints or at coffee and regenerative agriculture, they’re all arabica coffees, but they emerge from very different farming systems and from very different farmers. The context of these people is very different, and therefore what you have to prioritise – and how you support them – is also different.”
Ofi is also using its own coffee estate in Zambia to test different fertiliser types and quantities to find the ‘sweet spot’ where it can achieve good production with the lowest possible footprint.
At Dutch beverage company JDE Peet’s, decarbonisation involves a two-pronged approach, according to Laurent Sagarra, the firm’s vice-president of sustainability. It estimates that two-thirds of the carbon footprint of its coffee comes from agricultural practices, such as use of fertiliser, while the other third comes from deforestation.
To drive down these emissions, it is training all the farmers in its global supply chain, covering practices such as proper pruning of trees to increase yields. This increases farmers’ income, reducing the temptation for them to encroach into the forest to grow more coffee.
JDE Peet’s is also training farmers in regenerative agriculture practices, and collaborating with WCR to develop and propagate coffee varieties that give better yield and are more resistant to disease and climate change.
The scale of the work is challenging, Sagarra admits, with 700,000 farmers undergoing training so far. Farmers can be resistant to change. “If farmers lose a plant, they lose their income. This is why we’re investing in programmes of four to 10 years,” he says. “You have to reassure them that they’re not putting their livelihoods at risk. It takes time.”
As part of efforts to comply with the EUDR, JDE Peet’s works with verification and certification non-profit organisation Enveritas, which processes high-definition satellite imagery using artificial intelligence to differentiate between a forest and a coffee plot, many of which are under 10%-30% tree cover and could be mistakenly identified as deforested land, Sagarra says. The AI has been extensively trained, including for verification on the ground.
In Vietnam, it found 161 plots out of 1.8 million that had been deforested since 2020. Because it was such a small number, the company decided it would be easier to remediate the deforestation than to exclude those farmers from its supply chain. It is now rolling out this approach across the world and, so far, has supply chains in five countries that have no risk of deforestation, according to the EUDR’s definition.
“This is how you address the problem in an inclusive way. We are solving the root cause of the problem and making sure all farmers can access the EU market by being deforestation-free,” he says.
Of course, all these interventions require investment. According to WCR, the sector needs extra investment of $452m a year to support farmers to adapt to climate change. Investment in coffee typically comprises around 1.8% of agricultural spend in producer countries, despite an output of around 4.8%. Currently, some 90% of investment is made by the public sector.
However, this trend could be changing. At ofi, van Asten says that two or three years ago, its customers were asking to buy coffee with a lower carbon footprint but at the same price. Following a lot of discussion, it has set up pilot schemes with some of them to test different decarbonisation methods, some of which are already being scaled up, he reports.
Sustainability is becoming increasingly important commercially, with even buyers and sellers of beans discussing it, he says. “It’s moving into the commercial discussions, which is extremely healthy and really quite exciting.
“Of course, there are costs, and this is part of the conversation we have with our customers.” But, ultimately, reducing carbon is a matter of business continuity, he adds. If the world fails to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, ofi predicts that as much as half of the global area where coffee is currently grown may no longer be suitable.
“We have to protect the coffee farmers, and we have to ensure that there is a planet on which to grow it,” he says.
Catherine Early is a freelance writer and editor
