Human activity linked to heavier rainfall

Greenhouse gas emissions from human activity are causing global shifts in rainfall patterns and contributing to wetter weather over the UK, climate scientists say today.

Their study is the first to find a "human fingerprint" in the rainfall changes which have been detected in a belt of the northern hemisphere stretching from the Mediterranean to the UK to Norway.

The results, based on a global comparison of weather records going back to 1925, suggest that levels of rainfall across the UK have increased steadily by an average of 6.2 millimetres every decade. At least half of the extra rainfall and possibly up to 85% is caused by the impact of greenhouse gas emissions, the scientists conclude. The research, carried out by the Hadley Centre of the UK Met Office in conjunction with several national climate research institutes, does not prove that any single episode of extreme wet weather can be directly linked to climate change, but it supports the idea of a long-term rise in rainfall linked to emissions.

The study, published today in the journal Nature, adds weight to the growing belief that the UK is experiencing a fundamental shift in weather pattern with bursts of extremely hot conditions and almost tropical downpours. As waters of the Severn, Avon and Thames continue to rise, the Environment Agency described conditions in central England as the "worst floods in modern times". Tens of thousands of homes have lost power and water supplies, and river levels are not expected to reach their peak in the cities of Gloucester and Oxford until today.

Gordon Brown, who flew over the flood region yesterday, used his first monthly press conference since arriving at Number 10 to make the clear link between global warming and the flood devastation. He said: "Like every advanced industrialised country, we are coming to terms with the issues surrounding climate change. "We are going to have to look at drainage, surface water, as well as river water, and what we are going to be able to do in the future in relation to that. We will have to invest in coastal defences, flood defences and, of course, drainage in infrastructure in the years to come and that's why we are setting aside more resources to do so."